When the Opta Supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations for the 2023–24 Champions League season at the beginning of the season, it found that Manchester City won 38.9% of the time and that they were strong favorites to win the championship in draws. Now that the competition is back on Tuesday, when City takes on FC Copenhagen in Denmark and Real Madrid takes on RB Leipzig, we thought it would be a good idea to check out how the supercomputer rates each team’s chances.

Just four of the 16 teams that remained won more than 10 percent of the simulations in the most recent batch of runs. With a 32.1% chance of winning the Champions League championship as of this writing, City has once again emerged as a formidable contender after completing the treble the previous season. They have a better than 50% chance of making it to the championship.

2023–2024 Champions League Predictions

Pep Guardiola’s club is the one to beat in 2023–24 after shattering records by winning Europe’s top competition for the first time ever in their history the previous season.

Real Madrid, the 14-time champions, is ranked 15th in the supercomputer’s simulations of the Champions League with a 15.4% advantage, making them the second favorite. Madrid is favored to get past Leipzig and has advanced to the final in 28.1% of the simulations. They have a 50% chance of making it to the final four.

Inter Milan, which finished second in the previous season, is ranked as the third-most likely team to win the Champions League (11.6%), and in less than 25% of the simulations, they make it to the championship game. The Serie A leaders have advanced incredibly well in the second half of the season, going undefeated in their last 25 competitive games in a 90-minute span.

They have won seven straight games going into their difficult matchup with Atletico Madrid in the 16th round, and they are serious contenders to pass Diego Simeone’s squad. Atletico should never be totally written off, according to history, but it would be more surprising if they advanced farther than previously—they have only a 6.1% probability of making it to the final and a 2.4% chance of winning it.

The news on Saturday that Bayer Leverkusen, the league leaders, had eliminated Bayern Munich from the competition seriously hurt Harry Kane’s chances of taking home a silver medal. Their chances of winning national crowns this year may not have vanished, but the Champions League now carries more weight. The Opta Supercomputer ranks them as the fourth favorite to win the trophy (10.1%), while our simulations show that they have a 79.3% chance of being the second most likely team to advance to the round of 16.

Arsenal makes it to the final in nearly every fifth simulation, therefore they have a good chance of winning the Champions League for the first time, even at 8.4%. Mikel Arteta’s team recovered in time for the Champions League knockout stage following a difficult period around Christmas, when their performance somewhat declined. They have already won four straight after defeating West Ham on Sunday, setting up a meeting with Porto in the round of 16.

Paris Saint-Germain is the squad with the sixth-highest probability, 6.4% in the simulations, to win the Champions League. After losing key players Neymar and Lionel Messi, the Ligue 1 leaders are expected to win their home league once more and appear to have improved as a team. Their greatest trophy is the Champions League, which they haven’t won in previous years, but with Kylian Mbappe, anything is possible. They have a 64.5% chance of winning this week when they play Real Sociedad.

Next on our list of predictions are Barcelona (3.4%) and Borussia Dortmund (3.0%). However, none of these teams are playing well at home, and if they want to defeat the greatest in Europe’s top tournament, they will need to make huge progress.

Only seven teams are thought to have a 1.5% or less chance of winning the competition. Of those seven teams, Napoli, Lazio, and Copenhagen will all be first-time winners, while Porto (two titles) and PSV Eindhoven (one title) have some European experience. Copenhagen’s chances of winning the entire tournament are so poor that they go all the way up to 0% to the decimal place. They also have extremely little chance of going beyond City.